L’effet ballon des politiques de réduction de l’offre en Amérique Latine

Ce rapport examine la façon dont les efforts de réduction de l’offre de cocaïne en Amérique Latine affectent le comportement des organisations criminelles impliquées dans le trafic de drogue. Pour en savoir plus, en anglais, veuillez lire les informations ci-dessous.

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This chapter describes four main displacement effects of the supply-reduction strategy in Latin America: the “balloon effect” (the displacement of the targeted activity to another location), the “cockroach/diaspora effect” (the displacement of the targeted criminal groups to another territory), the “butterfly effect” (the displacement of the impact of state intervention), and the “short-sheet effect” (the displacement of budget priorities). To explore recent changes in the drug market and organized crime in the region, the chapter analyzes cocaine trafficking in 2000-2013, identifying a tipping point of the supply-reduction strategy in 2006-2008. In the tipping point, three sets of policy changes with respect to drug production and trafficking were introduced. First, Colombia shifted tactics in drug interdiction and weakened the major criminal organizations; second, Mexico intensified its offensive against trafficking organizations; and, third, the United States stepped up its control over its Southwest border with Mexico.

Read the full report here.

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