Displacement effects of supply‐reduction policies in Latin America

This chapter describes four main displacement effects of the supply-reduction strategy in Latin America: the “balloon effect” (the displacement of the targeted activity to another location), the “cockroach/diaspora effect” (the displacement of the targeted criminal groups to another territory), the “butterfly effect” (the displacement of the impact of state intervention), and the “short-sheet effect” (the displacement of budget priorities).

To explore recent changes in the drug market and organized crime in the region, the chapter analyzes cocaine trafficking in 2000-2013, identifying a tipping point of the supply-reduction strategy in 2006-2008. In the tipping point, three sets of policy changes with respect to drug production and trafficking were introduced. First, Colombia shifted tactics in drug interdiction and weakened the major criminal organizations; second, Mexico intensified its offensive against trafficking organizations; and, third, the United States stepped up its control over its Southwest border with Mexico.

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