Supply-side reduction policy and drug-related harm in Australia

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Supply-side reduction policy and drug-related harm in Australia

18 December 2014

The aim of the current study was to examine the impact of seizures and supplier arrests on the use of and harms associated with three drugs: heroin, cocaine and amphetamine type substances (ATS). Heroin, cocaine and ATS were selected for examination for three reasons. Firstly, all three are known to cause significant harm both to users of the drugs (Ross 2007) and to the broader community (Blumstein, Cohen, Roth and Visher 1986; Nurco et al. 1991; Degenhardt et al. 2005; McKetin et al. 2006; Tyner and Fremouw 2008).

Secondly, although the prevalence of heroin use has declined in recent years, all three drugs remain significant problems in Australia. According to the last National Drug Strategy Household Survey (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2011), in the 12 months preceding the survey, 2.1 per cent of those aged 14 years and older used ATS, while 2.1 per cent used cocaine. While the prevalence of recent heroin use is much lower (0.2 per cent), heroin use remains a problem in NSW, which in 2008 accounted for 204 (58%) of the 351 opioid overdose deaths that occurred nationally (Stafford and Burns 2013, p. 93).

Thirdly, seizures of and arrests for supplying these drugs are sufficiently frequent and variable to permit an examination of the effects of large scale seizures and high-level arrests. Border detections of ATS (excluding MDMA) have ranged in number from around 200 (in 2003/4) to over 1,000 (in 2011/12). In terms of weight over the same period, they ranged from less than 50kg to nearly 350 kg. Heroin border detections ranged in number from less than 100 in 2003/4 to around 400 in 2006/7, and in weight over the same period, from less than 50kg in 2003/4 to around 400kg in 2011/12. Cocaine border detections ranged in number from around 100 in 2002/3 to more than 1,000 in 2011/12, and in weight over the same period, from around 50 to nearly 800kg in 2011/12 (Australian Crime Commission 2013).

This study improves on past research in three ways. Two of the four previous studies of the effect of drug seizures on drug markets have restricted their attention to one seizure (Rumbold and Fry 1999; Wood et al. 2003). In this study we examine all significant seizures of heroin, cocaine and ATS in Australia over a 10 year period (from July 2001 to June 2011). Rather than infer changes in consumption and harm from changes in drug price, purity and availability, we measure consumption and harm more directly, though ED admissions for drug overdose and arrests for drug use and possession. We use arrests for drug use and possession (UP arrests) as a supplementary measure of drug use because they have been shown in past Australian research to be strongly correlated with ED admissions for heroin, ATS and cocaine use (Nordt and Stohler 2010; Rosenfeld and Decker 1999; Moffatt, Wan and Weatherburn 2011). They also have the advantage (particularly in the case of cocaine and ATS) of being more frequent than ED admissions.

Finally, in addition to conducting a general analysis of the effects of variation in seizures and supplier arrests we conducted an interrupted time series analysis of the effects of a single high-level drug law enforcement operation that resulted in the seizure of a very substantial quantity of cocaine and the arrest of several key players in the Sydney cocaine market. The distinctive feature of this operation is that NSW Crime Commission identified it, in advance of our analysis, as having the potential to have affected the market for cocaine.

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