Is the global cocaine trade in decline ?

By James Bargent - InSight Crime

The latest United Nations drug report poses a question with major implications for Latin American organized crime: is the global cocaine market shrinking?

The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) 2016 World Drug Report (pdf) presents a long-term analysis of cocaine production, seizures and consumption that comes to a startling conclusion: the cocaine trade appears to be in decline.

According to the UNODC, coca cultivation fell by 40 percent between its 2000 peak and 2014. Better yields through improved farming and processing techniques meant cocaine production was less affected, either falling by just 10 percent or actually increasing by 14 percent, depending on which formula is used to calculate it.

However, whichever figure is used, deducting the quantity of cocaine seizures from production produces the same result -- significantly less cocaine on the market.

North America remains the world's biggest cocaine market but consumption has been declining for some time, according to the UNODC. Between 2006 and 2014, cocaine use in the United States fell significantly by all indicators; past year use fell by 32 percent, cocaine related deaths by 34 percent, and treatment admissions by 54 percent.

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Thumbnail: Flickr CC Valerie Everett